Warming Atlantic Worsens Hurricanes…Or Stops Them..Or Something…GLOBAL WARMING IS BAD!
By Duane Lester • Jan 31st, 2008
The latest fear mongering from the Church of Global Warming comes packed with a really scary photoshopped picture of the 2005 season and a scary headline: WARMING ATLANTIC WORSENS HURRICANES:
Scientists have long known that hurricanes get their enormous energy from warm waters, so the warmer the water, the more fuel a storm has to either start up or get stronger. The study calculates how much storm frequency and strength is due to warmer sea water, said author Mark Saunders, professor of climate prediction at the University College London.
Saunders found a distinct numerical connection between the ups and downs of water temperatures and how nasty hurricane season gets. That helps explain why hurricanes have been so much worse in the past dozen years, and even why 2007 — with waters slightly cooler than normal — was an exception and not that bad a hurricane year, Saunders said.
“It’s very surprisingly sensitive to small changes in sea-surface temperature,” he said.
Wow. That is compelling. Or it would have been had, I not read this on the podcast on Monday:
Two South Florida scientists have found that steadily warming oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States.
The reason: As sea surface temperatures rise, vertical wind shear increases. And wind shear makes it difficult for storms to grow, which was seen in the past hurricane season, when several systems were stunted.
“Using data extending back to the middle 19th Century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up,” said Chunzai Wang, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Or this back in 2007:
According to a new study, this year’s drop in Accumulated Cyclone Energy may be caused by global warming. Higher temperatures cause more evaporation. Water conducts heat more efficiently than air, and so higher levels of atmospheric moisture cause a relative evening out of global air temperatures by region. This results in fewer and weaker cyclones, because wind is the result of variations in air temperature.
But 2008, boy you better hold on to your hats folks. This is gonna be a bad one. Not that we haven’t heard that before about 2006 and 2007. How did that turn out again?
With the official hurricane season now over, we now have a better idea of what 85%+ forecast certainty meant: Wrong 100% of the time.
In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a 85% probability there would be an “above normal” hurricane season.
This is the second year running the government hurricane forecast was wrong. This 0-2 record may tell us something about other similarly “certain” forecasts, such as those issued by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
If forecasters can’t get hurricane projections right during hurricane season, why should we trust their forecasts for a hundred years from now?
NOAA had predicted 7-9 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes, but there were just six hurricanes, only two of which were “major.” There are “normally” six hurricanes, two major, and 11 named storms.
The science is settled folks. There is a consensus after all. Just because we have a lack of consensus doesn’t mean there isn’t a consensus. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
