On December 3, 2008, the bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism released its “World at Risk” report. This report predicted a high risk of a major terrorist nuclear or biological attack by 2012.
The Commission members explained that the risk of such attacks is increasing because Al Qaeda and other terrorists have demonstrated continued interest in using such weapons of mass destruction and could try to hire rogue scientists. According to the WMD Commission, a biological attack is more likely than a nuclear attack, because pathogens are easier to obtain and weaponize.
To minimize the growing threat, the Commission suggests several commonsense tactics, including tightening government oversight of high-containment laboratories, greater law enforcement and national security integration to address the threat of WMDs and terrorism, and international cooperation with nations at risk, such as Russia and Pakistan.
In an interview with Graf Shepherd’s blog, Commission Co-Chair and former U.S. Senator Jim Talent (R-Missouri) expanded on the Commission’s recommendations. Despite Pakistan’s reputation as a haven for terrorists, Mr. Talent maintains that cooperation with Pakistan is a realistic possibility. He explains, “The key there is to get them to focus on the urgency of the threat–to understand that stopping terrorism and WMD should be their top priority as well as ours. The recent attacks on Mumbai, with the negative consequences for the credibility of the Pakistani government, may help reinforce the right message.”
Mr. Talent predicts that our traditional allies, such as Britain, will be among our strongest supporters in securing nuclear and pathogenic material. He also suggests that the Russians have been “reasonable” on the issue of terrorism. “[T]hey recognize it is not in their interests for their nuclear material to be stolen.”
The Report did not directly address border security, focusing primarily on “issues like cargo screening and how well the intelligence community was tracking suspected terrorists who entered the United States from abroad.” For example, the Report notes criticism levelled at the Department of Homeland Security?s Container Security Initiative (CSI). CSI scans high-risk cargo before it is loaded on U.S.-bound container ships, but CSI relies heavily on shipper-provided information to determine which containers are “high-risk.”
The Report also noted the need for a “nuclear security workforce.” The Commission ”found great concern in a number of key agencies over sustaining the necessary base of expertise once the baby boom cohort retires.” They recommend a “government-wide national security education program for the national security officer corps, similar to the various schools used by the military.” The Commission argues for “special emphasis on the need of the government labs to sustain their expertise and greater priority and attention to joint assignments and curriculum as a way of increasing the attractiveness of intelligence work and the capabilities of the community.”
The Commission’s Report did not discuss whether Obama’s planned tactic of withdrawing combat troops from Iraq will help or hurt the U.S. in terms of dealing with the threat of nuclear and/or biological weapons.
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